ارزیابی مدل AquaCrop در شبیه سازی عملکرد و کارایی مصرف آب سه رقم ذرت دانه ای در شرایط اقلیمی گرم و خشک

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، مجتمع آموزش عالی گناباد، گناباد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

چکیده

امروزه، مدل­های رشد گیاهان نقش مهمی در تخمین رشد و عملکرد محصول، برنامه­ریزی تولید محصولات کشاورزی، اقتصاد تولید و تعیین راهبردهای تأمین محصولات دارند. در این پژوهش، مدل AquaCrop برای سه رقم ذرت DC 370، ZP 677 و SC 704 تحت فراهمی سطوح متفاوت آب (عدم تنش، تنش ملایم و تنش شدید) و نیتروژن (صفر، 120، 180 و 240 کیلوگرم در هکتار) مورد واسنجی و ارزیابی قرار گرفت. برای اعتبارسنجی این مدل از ریشه میانگین مربعات خطای نرمال شده (nRMSE) و ضریب تعیین (R2) استفاده شدند. نتـایج نشـان داد که مدل با دقت بالایی عملکرد دانه ارقام ذرت را شبیه­سازی کرد. اما دقت شبیه­سازی با افزایش تنش خشکی کاهش یافت. کمترین nRMSE (5/7 %) و بیشترین R2 (93/0) محاسبه شده از رقم ZP 677 به­دست آمدند. مدل با خطای بیشتری عملکرد بیولوژیکی ذرت را نسبت به عملکرد دانه شبیه­سازی نمود. هرچند روند تغییرات آن در نتیجه تغییر در سطح تنش خشکی و یا کود نیتروژن به­خوبی و مطابق با آزمایش مزرعه­ای پیش­بینی شد. nRMSE بین 8/6 و 9/10 درصد بدست آمد، درحالی که R2 بین 82/0 تا 92/0 متغیر بود. مدل AquaCrop با دقت قابل قبولی تغییرات کارایی مصرف آب ارقام ذرت را شبیه­سازی کرد، به­طوری که با افزایش تنش خشکی و کاربرد کود نیتروژنی میزان آن افزایش یافت. البته، نتایج خروجی مدل در اغلب حالات کمتر از مقادیر اندازه­گیری شده بودند. بهترین نتیجه ارزیابی مدل (4/6%nRMSE= و 93/0R2=) از رقم ZP 677 حاصل شد. با توجه به نتایج به­دست آمده، می­توان مدل AquaCrop را با درصد اطمینان بالایی برای شبیه­سازی عملکرد ذرت دانه­ای در نواحی اقلیمی مشابه با این آزمایش را به­کار برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of AquaCrop Model in Simulating Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Three Corn Hybrids under Hot-Dry Climatic Conditions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yaser Esmaeilian 1
  • Mahmoud Ramroudi 2
1 Assistant professor, Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Gonabad, Gonabad, Iran
2 Associate professor, Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, crop simulation models have a key role in crop growth and yield estimation, production planning, production economy and identifying strategies for crops supply. In this research, AquaCrop model was calibrated and evaluated for three corn hybrids; (DC 370, ZP 677, and SC 704) under different levels of water supply (non stress, mid stress, and severe stress) and nitrogen rates (0, 120, 180, and 240 kg N/ha). For model validation, normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) and determination of coefficient (R2) were used. Result showed that the model simulated grain yield of corn hybrids with high precision. Simulation precision decreased with increasing drought stress. The lowest nRMSE (7.5%) and highest R2 (0.93) were obtained from ZP 677 hybrid. The model simulated corn biological yield with more deviation percentage than grain yield. However, it´s variation trend due to variation in drought stress level or nitrogen fertilizer predicted well according to field experiment. nRMSE ranged from 6.8 and 10.9, while R2 varied from 0.82 to 0.92. AquaCrop model simulated the variation of water use efficiency of corn hybrids with reasonable accuracy, so that it´s value increased with increasing drought stress and nitrogen fertilizer application, while, model outputs in most situations were lower than measured values. The best model validation result (nRMSE=6.4% and R2= 0.93) obtained from ZP 677 hybrid. According to the results were obtained, AquaCrop model can be applied with high reliability for simulating corn yield under similar climatic regions of this experiment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AquaCrop model
  • Drought stress
  • simulation
  • water use efficiency
  • yield
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